The Anaheim Ducks protection list was announced today along with the rest of the teams that had to submit their lists to the NHL this morning. As expected, General Manager Bob Murray went with the seven forwards, three defensemen, and one goalie option. The Ducks protected forwards Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell, Andrew Cogliano, and Antoine Vermette. Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, and Kevin Bieksa were the protected defensemen. The Ducks also protected goalie John Gibson, which wasn’t a surprise.

The question for Murray is what will he offer Vegas GM George McPhee in order to prevent Josh Manson or Sami Vatanen from being picked by Vegas. During this past week leading up to the trade freeze on Saturday, June 17th at 12 PM PT, several official NHL sources said a deal was in place for Vatanen. Some of the experts felt a deal could be reached before the trade freeze, but it never materialized. Other experts felt Kevin Bieksa would waive his no-movement clause, which also didn’t happen. It’s still not clear if Murray asked Bieksa and he refused or if Murray even asked Bieksa.

Prior to the trade freeze, the Ducks were going to trade Vatanen, Bieksa would waive his NMC, and Anaheim would be good for their protection list. Well, not exactly. Neither of those happened, so now Murray is in a difficult situation or is he?

Here are some possible scenarios that could unfold by Wednesday when Vegas announces their draft selections and trades.

Scenario 1: A Deal Is In Place

It is still possible that Murray has a deal in place with McPhee in order to prevent the Ducks from losing Manson or Vatanen for nothing. If this is the case, then the agreement is still not official according to the Vegas Golden Knights, because GM McPhee stated he hasn’t pulled the trigger on any trades as of today. He did state that he believes he has several deals lined up. So there is the possibility Anaheim has a deal that hasn’t been yet made official.

Scenario 2: Vegas Takes Manson

If a deal isn’t reached and McPhee doesn’t go after Vatanen, Manson could be taken by Vegas. There is a chance McPhee doesn’t pursue Vatanen due to his injury and time to rehab his shoulder. In this case, Murray could still trade Vatanen in order to get a top forward that he is still looking for and possibly gain cap space. Murray would lose two defensemen in this scenario, which he would likely want to avoid, but he still has Shea Theodore and/or Brandon Montour as replacements.

Scenario 3: Vegas Takes Vatanen

Again if a deal isn’t reached, then McPhee could pick up Vatanen, which wouldn’t entirely be a bad scenario. If Vegas took Vatanen, then the Ducks would gain about $4.8 million in cap space. The money gained could be used to give Cam Fowler the extension that has been reported as a goal of Murray’s. The Ducks could also try to keep Patrick Eaves, which Murray revealed as a desire at the Ducks Select-A-Seat season ticket holder event. If Murray can’t reach a deal with Eaves, then he would still have extra cap space to go after a top scoring forward.

Prediction

I believe Murray will have a deal worked out with McPhee, but the real question is going to be at what cost. In order to convince McPhee to pick another player, Murray will have to offer a high draft pick(s) and/or exempt prospects. Some exempt players that could be offered include Nick Ritchie, Max Jones, Sam Steel, Ondrej Kase, Shea Theodore, Brandon Montour, and Jacob Larsson.

I believe Murray would like to keep Manson more than Vatanen because Vatanen is easier to replace than Manson and moving Vatanen would make more financial sense. Montour could step in Vatanen’s spot on the Ducks blue line. Manson is a young stay at home defensemen and tough guy that can help the Ducks for years to come. The Ducks have plenty of offense-minded defensemen, they don’t have many stay at home defensemen.

I predict Murray will offer a defensive player like Theodore or Larsson to Vegas and/or a draft pick in order to allow the Ducks to keep Manson and trade Vatanen. Murray doesn’t want to offer up promising forwards like Steel, Jones, or Kase. It makes more sense to give up a defensive player because that’s the position where Anaheim is the deepest.

For now, we will have to wait until Wednesday at the NHL Awards show in Las Vegas to see if Murray has worked out a deal or not.

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